CHANGING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL ORDER: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

Abstract

The notion that unipolarity does not define the existing world order is a misconception. The United States sits comfortably above all others in every power metric. However, China’s meteoric ascent, expanding outreach, and increasing assertiveness on the global stage have caused great consternation in Washington and is determined to uphold its primacy. Its interests converge with New Delhi's, which seeks to preserve its dominance in South Asia; therefore, the two countries have upscaled their diplomatic ties and deepened their defense partnership. In the face of escalating Sino-American competition, Pakistan is in a strategic straitjacket. It has a history of close relations with the United States of America and China is its all-weather friend. In recent years, Washington’s shifting policy priorities, especially vis-à-vis India, have estranged Islamabad whose economic miseries have pushed it further into Beijing’s orbit. This qualitative research conducted through the prism of neo-realism examines the existing balance of power at the international and regional levels and the consequences for Pakistan. Through a comprehensive analysis of various dimensions of structural power, it debunks the prevalent narrative about the dawn of a multipolar world. While this study acknowledges the indispensability of China’s military, economic, and diplomatic support for Pakistan, it also presses for a re-set in Pak-U.S. relations to avoid the worst-case outcomes for the country and the region. In the context of South Asia, this paper cautions that Islamabad and Washington’s overreliance on any one power will be detrimental to their respective interests. Pakistan in particular must strive to achieve domestic stability and broaden its foreign policy options to avoid falling into a debilitating dependency.