TRANSITION OF TRADE WAR INTO MILITARY CONFLICT: CASE STUDY OF THE U.S. – CHINA

Abstract

Since 2018, the United States and the People’s Republic of China have moved from tariff frays to a systemic rivalry encompassing technology, finance, industrial policy, and security. This article evaluates the potential of contemporary trade disputes escalating into military confrontation. It integrates theoretical discussions of trade conflict with historical case studies predating armed conflict, utilising a qualitative approach grounded in historical precedents to provide a specific analysis of anticipated policy changes in the 2024-2025 policy escalation. Further, it also argues that the U.S.- China dispute has already crossed the threshold from a “trade war” to a broader strategic confrontation. The findings indicate that, despite differences in economic interdependence, nuclear deterrence, and hyper-connected communication systems, the structural process compelling the US and China to weaponise trade aligns with historical mercantilist patterns. The analysis emphasises that trade wars increase the probability of military conflict, providing guidance for policymakers aiming to prevent great-power strategic rivalry from escalating into actual wars.