NDU Journal

POLITICAL DRIVERS OF INDIA'S BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE PROGRAMME AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SOUTH ASIAN SECURITY

Mr. Faraz Haider; Dr Adil Sultan — Fri, 19 May 2023 00:00:00 +0500

The reasons for the birth and continuation of India's BMD programme argue for security concerns. However, those are not reflected in on-ground realities. The paper explores said gap and the resulting security implications and highlights defence policy options. The drivers behind India's BMD programme can be analysed by considering the external and internal political drivers that shape India's security interests. India's BMD programme started before formally declaring itself a nuclear weapon state. It grew parallel with the Indo-US strategic partnership to build India's political and military standing as part of the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy. An increase in India's military potential will likely have severe repercussions for security and strategic stability between two nuclear neighbours, India and Pakistan. BMDs could lead to a false sense of protection for the possessor state and provide an incentive for launching a 'first strike' against the adversary. In response, Pakistan can contemplate several options without embroiling itself in a BMD race. Pakistan has already developed several versions of air, land, and sea-launched cruise missiles and is expanding its MIRVs that can sufficiently evade and penetrate India's BMD systems. Additionally, indigenously built UAVs could counter India's BMD system and disrupt or degrade associated ISR through electronic warfare and jamming capabilities.

Bibliography Entry

Haider, Faraz and Dr Adil Sultan (2023) “Political Drivers of India's Ballistic Missile Defence Programme and Implications for South Asian Security” NDU Journal. 37: 1-15.

DOCTRINAL SHIFT IN THE INDIAN ARMY AFTER 2018: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

Ms. Kokab Al-Saba; Dr. Noor Fatima — Fri, 19 May 2023 00:00:00 +0500

Indian Army's doctrinal manoeuvring would create severe challenges for the strategic stability of South Asia. The New Land Warfare Doctrine envisage force restructuring. Under the new doctrine, Indian Army's Integrated Battle Groups will be highly equipped with reduced numbers but qualitatively a deadly force with modern weapons and equipment for quick shallower operations under the nuclear threshold of Pakistan. The LWD also focuses on a force to fight a two-front war against China and Pakistan. Still, this point is contentious because India's military deployment and force modernisation is Pakistan-focused, not against China. China is too assertive for India, and both states have huge asymmetry at all levels. In addition, the article concludes that under this new doctrine, India would also use sub-conventional warfare operations or surgical strikes. The study concludes that Pakistan will never accept any intimidation or bullying. Pakistan's response to any misadventure by India will be apt, quick and precise. The study emphasises that confrontation between two belligerents would have far-reaching regional and global security implications. Both nuclear powers of South Asia must engage themselves in a meaningful, consistent dialogue process for South Asia's long-term peace and stability.

Bibliography Entry

Saba, Al-Kokab and Dr. Noor Fatima (2023) “Doctrinal Shift in the Indian Army after 2018: Implications for Pakistan” NDU Journal. 37: 16-24.

FROM CRISIS ONSET TO DE-ESCALATION: EXAMINING ROLE OF CRISIS MANAGEMENT IN THE PULWAMA CRISIS

Ms. Tayyaba Khurshid — Sun, 30 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0500

The enduring rivalry between India and Pakistan has been manifold due to the trust deficit, threat perception, and non-resolving nature of their disputes. The hostile nature of the two neighbours demands a deep understanding of their relationship, and focus is
required on how a particular crisis management approach has helped them manage their conflict and avoid war during the Pulwama crisis. The paper applies Michael Brecher's four-stage model to explain the Pulwama crisis and describe how the situation between India and Pakistan has shifted from a perception of nuclear war to de-escalation after the attack. Crisis management helped the two states to retaliate back from their position and avoid the war-like scenario anticipated at that time. The various dimensions and underpinnings of crisis management entail that the synthesis of traditional and modern concepts of crisis management will better explain the theoretical contours of crisis management.

Bibliography Entry

Khurshid, Tayyaba (2023) “From Crisis Onset to De-Escalation: Examining Role of Crisis Management in the Pulwama Crisis” NDU Journal. 37: 25-33.

INDIA'S CYBER WARFARE CAPABILITIES: REPERCUSSIONS FOR PAKISTAN'S NATIONAL SECURITY

Ms. Nageen Ashraf; Dr. Saima Ashraf Kayani — Tue, 23 May 2023 00:00:00 +0500

Cyber warfare refers to a state's ability to penetrate another state's digital systems to cause disruption. Cyber warfare has emerged as the fifth operational warfighting domain. India has been strengthening its cyber warfare capabilities for a long time, which can seriously affect Pakistan. Considering the theoretical constructs of Barry Buzan and Ole Waever regarding the broader concept of security, this paper aims to highlight the possible threats and security challenges that India's cyberspace can pose to Pakistan's national security. The paper argues that India has acquired a robust cyberspace that can potentially cause financial damage, political instability, societal unrest, and radicalisation in Pakistan's society. Furthermore, strong cyberspace can also challenge nuclear deterrence between the two neighbours, thus threatening military security. The paper concludes with recommendations regarding what Pakistan can do to mitigate this growing cyber threat.

Bibliography Entry

Ashraf, Nageen and Dr. Saima Ashraf Kayani (2023) “India's Cyber Warfare Capabilities: Repercussions for Pakistan's National Security” NDU Journal. 37: 34-45.

INDIA-US STRATEGIC CONVERGENCE: IMPLICATIONS FOR STRATEGIC BALANCE IN SOUTH ASIA

Mr. Muhammad Ahmad Khan — Tue, 23 May 2023 00:00:00 +0500

South Asia is the victim of regional politics between Pakistan and India, making it the least integrated region globally. The jostling between the two nuclear competitors negatively impacts the region's peace, security and development. Major Powers have exploited these fault lines to achieve their strategic objectives. India considers itself a significant regional power, and the US encourages it to be a net security provider in the region. India perceives Pakistan and China as obstacles in its hegemonic ambitions. It has moved closer to the US in its strategic initiatives, resulting in multiple socioeconomic, political and strategic implications for the strategic balance in South Asia, particularly for Pakistan. India is trying to push the region's strategic balance in its favour. It brings significant challenges for Pakistan and opportunities to counter them. This research paper aims to analyse the implications of the India-US strategic partnership on the strategic situation in South Asia, especially Pakistan. It explores the out-of-box way forward that Pakistan may adopt to create opportunities for itself.

Bibliography Entry

Khan, Muhammad Ahmad (2023) “India-US Strategic Convergence: Implications for Strategic Balance in South Asia” NDU Journal. 37: 46-58.

IRAN'S LOOK EAST POLICY: A STEP TOWARDS COUNTERING WESTERN PRESSURES

Dr. Syed Qandil Abbas — Thu, 18 May 2023 00:00:00 +0500

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, relations between Iran, the US, and its allies have deteriorated. The US and the West pressurised Iran by imposing sanctions, especially after the Iranian hostage crisis and the development of its nuclear programme. Iran wanted to counter Israeli nuclear ambitions by developing its programme but had to face sanctions. Due to these sanctions, Iran's economy suffered severely. Despite having vast energy resources in the form of oil and gas, it could not achieve its full economic potential. During Hassan Rouhani's presidency, Iran signed a nuclear deal (JCPOA) with the US-led Western alliance. Still, the unilateral withdrawal of the US under Donald Trump proved that compromise between Iran and the US is almost impossible from their present standpoints. In this situation, Iran had to find other partners to help it counter the Western pressures for its economic survival. The
Oriental powers like Russia and China provided a good opportunity for Iran to counter sanctions. Therefore, Iran also began to focus on other Eurasian and Southeast Asian economies. This research analyses Iran's Look East Policy, especially under President Ibrahim Raisi. It critically examines how Iran can implement its Look East Policy under ongoing regional and international scenarios, what the hurdles will be in implementing this policy, and what the prospects will be. To answer these questions, Realism can be a most relevant theoretical perspective. According to Morgenthau's six principles of Realism, international politics are shaped by a state's interests, especially regarding power.

Bibliography Entry

Abbas, Syed Qandil (2023) “Iran's Look East Policy: A Step Towards Countering Western Pressures” NDU Journal. 37: 59-72.

NEO-MERCANTILISM AND GLOBALISATION: A CASE STUDY OF CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

Dr. Khalid Mahmood Shafi; Mr. Muhammad Tariq Niaz, Mr. Rizwan Ali — Thu, 18 May 2023 00:00:00 +0500

The quirks and flaws in the current global system are causing economic inequalities, uneven development, moulding of cultures and power imbalance. China is pursuing global rebalancing by initiating two grand projects, i.e., BRI and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. One is related to infrastructure, and the other is to counter Western dominated lending institutions. BRI serves as a comprehensive template for a new version of globalisation based on a new set of cultural, political and economic ideas-BRI-led globalisation is termed the Eastern version of modern globalisation, which is qualitatively and quantitatively dissimilar from the current US-led global order. This paper explains the concept of Neo-mercantilism and relates it to China's economic and political influence. It also elaborates on the role of BRI in the new form of globalisation and how South Asia is engaged in this global project. It elaborates on how CPEC has become the flagship project of BRI to internationalise the Eastern concept and advance Chinese national interests. It links China to other countries in three continents, i.e. Asia, Africa and Europe, with China as a centre.

Bibliography Entry

Shafi, Dr. Khalid Mahmood, Mr. Muhammad Tariq Niaz and Mr. Rizwan Ali (2023) “Neo-Mercantilism and Globalisation: A Case Study of China's Belt and Road Initiative” NDU Journal. 37: 73-84.

ROADMAP FOR THE POLITICAL AND LEGAL RESOLUTION OF THE KASHMIR DISPUTE

Dr. Muhammad Khan ; Ms. Sidra Khan — Fri, 19 May 2023 00:00:00 +0500

The origin of the Kashmir dispute is political, as it is the unfinished agenda of partitioning the Indian Subcontinent. The legal aspects were later attached to the dispute to provide relevance and coverage to the unsolicited Indian invasion, which was a significant impediment towards a logical and pacific resolution. However, over seven decades of occupation proved infertile and less time for winning the hearts and minds of the people of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) for India. Today, after seventy-five years of its occupation, the people of occupied Jammu and Kashmir neither accept the Indian constitution, nor the annexation, unilaterally and illegally carried out by India on August 5, 2019. Instead, they stood up for their fundamental right of self-determination with new vigour and enthusiasm. This development has infuriated India to commit massive human rights violations in IIOJK. While India has done all this in violation of UN resolutions on Kashmir, there are sufficient grounds for pursuing the case in the UN politically and legally. This research focuses on finding out a roadmap as a way forward for the peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute through political and lawful means.

Bibliography Entry

Khan, Dr. Muhammad and Sidra Khan (2023) “Roadmap for the Political and Legal Resolution of the Kashmir Dispute” NDU Journal. 37: 85-100.