NDU Journal https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site <p>NDU Journal is an annual publication of National Defence University, the premier institution for security and strategic studies. The journal is a unique publication of the country, which primarily deals with the national security issues of Pakistan. The journal has its own standing among the students, researchers, experts, policy makers and intelligentsia. Keeping the flag high, the articles appearing in the journal are selected after a rigorous scrutiny and blind peer reviews at home and abroad.</p> en-US editor@ndu.journal (Editor) webmaster@ndu.journal (Webmaster) Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500 OJS http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss 60 THE POSITION OF CHINA AND AMERICA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/75 <p>South China Sea’s geopolitics is affecting the region as the two major global powers, China and the US are the parties in this conflict. Both have varying geopolitical interests which needs to be analysed to understand the regional geopolitics. To determine their ties, this paper focus on understanding the differences between the two states, the growing power and affirmation of China, and its priorities and policies in search and protection of its interests. There is a disparity in the region where China is trying to strengthen its position in the area, while America wishes to uphold the existing status quo. The paper argues that, in such situation, it is hard to see prospects for Chinese-US collaboration in the South China Sea.</p> Dr Sahibzada Muhammad Usman; Yamama Khalid Copyright (c) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/75 Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500 NEO-DYNAMICS OF INDO-US STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP: CHALLENGES FOR PAKISTAN https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/76 <p>In the post-Cold War era, India and the United States forged a strategic partnership and developed a complex interdependence in the form of civil nuclear deal, missile defence cooperation and space cooperation. By using the theoretical framework of realism especially offensive realism and complex interdependence, the study explains the factors that led to the evolution of Indo-US strategic partnership and consolidation of their relations into a comprehensive strategic partnership. The main argument of the study is that Indo-US strategic partnership is based on offensive realism which has led to develop India as hegemonic and aggressive power. The study finds out that the main purpose of the US strategic partnership with India is to contain the rise of China and maintain its primacy by making India as a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific region. However, contrary to United States objectives, it has negatively affected the regional security by affecting balance of power in favour of India vis-à-vis Pakistan. Pakistan is facing multifarious challenges due to Indian aggressive policies towards Kashmir, deadlock in bilateral talks and challenges of hybrid warfare. The study<br>recommends that Pakistan should carefully design its strategy to counter Indian designs by developing cordial relations with the US.</p> Dr Riaz Ahmad; Azeem Gul Copyright (c) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/76 Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500 RUSSIAN TILT TOWARDS PAKISTAN AND INDIAN INSECURITIES https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/77 <p>The US intimacy with India has altered the balance of power in South Asia. The series of defence partnership agreements signed between the US and India coupled with the US resentment over CPEC has isolated and distanced Pakistan from the US. Moreover,<br>growing international pressure, constrained and curbed choices along with controlled chaos, and shifting alliances in the region has pushed Pakistan to seek collaboration with Russia. Currently, both states have joined hands under the umbrella of One Belt<br>One Road initiative with the ambition of connecting CPEC with EAEU. The idea of economic integration in the future is cemented by broader military coordination and improvement of people-to-people linkages. Since 2014, Russia officially elevated the ban<br>on selling weapons to Pakistan, revived a joint working group on counterterrorism and international issues, the joint military friendship drills are now also conducted annually. India is not contented with this new substitute in the regional equation. The<br>momentum of improvement in relations between Pakistan and Russia has heightened Indian insecurities. The multi-vector Russian policy and its tilt towards Pakistan can compromise and endanger Indian interests regionally and internationally. This paper<br>attempts to comprehend the nature of Indian insecurities in the backdrop of the emerging Russian-Pakistan nexus.</p> Dr Asma Rashid Copyright (c) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/77 Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500 STRATEGIC POWER PLAY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN AND PAKISTAN https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/78 <p>Indian Ocean is in limelight due to trade, connectivity, regional conflicts and tug of competition for dominance. Corresponding rising interest, naval competition, presence of world’s great and extra-regional powers, terrorism, and opposing states, make this<br>ocean a pivotal strategic theatre. Being a strategic fulcrum, the US, China and India are key contenders. The US, having India as its strategic ally, is employing its counterbalancing strategy against China. China envisions ‘Common future Common growth’ policy through its Belt and Road Initiative and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The US Indo-Pacific Strategy succeeds the Asia-Pacific rebalance. Iran’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean is its strategic compulsion to combat its “geopolitical isolation” via energy diplomacy. The European Union views the strategic and political developments in the Indian Ocean from the side-lobes. Pakistan geographically has superior strategic orientation being at the gateway of energy highways and enjoys great geo-strategic superiority, especially in view of China’s BRI and its flagship CPEC. This qualitative causal research, employing deductive reasoning for analysis &amp; inferences, studies the Indian Ocean powerplay and tug of influence while drawing strategic recommendations for Pakistan.</p> Tanweer Shahid Copyright (c) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/78 Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500 PANDEMIC AND BIOLOGICAL THREATS: WAY FORWARD FOR PAKISTAN https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/79 <p>Biological hazards pose non-traditional threat to human security, primarily due to their devastating nature and ever-changing character. Coronavirus (COVID-19) is the black swan of 21st century which has played havoc with states and public across the<br>globe without sparing rich and poor. Pakistan is also confronting human security challenges with dire consequences on national security. It includes uneven distribution of health care infrastructure, lack of adequately trained paramedical staff, nonavailability of critical health care equipment and absence of research and development in disease control and prevention. Although, Pakistan managed to cope up with the massive health emergency through quick health care optimisation and build up measures under the framework of National Command and Operational Centre (NCOC), yet the experience has raised questions on the viability of existing pandemic response framework in absence of such central body. This paper is an endeavour to carryout objective analysis of response framework of contemporary world in limiting COVID-19 pandemic to draw relevant inferences to refine the response framework against future challenges.</p> Afzaal Malik; Fawad Hameed, Babar Khalil Khalil Copyright (c) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/79 Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500 EMERGING DIMENSIONS OF NON-TRADITIONAL SECURITY: HUMAN SECURITY IN PAKISTAN https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/80 <p>The concept of security has undergone profound transformation marked by a paradigm shift, consequent of the growing importance of non-traditional threats periling human security and state security. Non-traditional security threats have not been adequately<br>addressed by Pakistan. Moreover, the fall-out of Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) affected Pakistan the most, given its geostrategic location and role as a frontline ally of the US. It undermined Pakistan’s human dimension of security in two ways: firstly, the<br>scourge of terrorism directly aggravated the situation of human security, and secondly, it further led to the marginalisation of various issues such as water scarcity, environmental degradation, food insecurity, population explosion and energy crises<br>which have been transformed into non-traditional security threats and are horrendously affecting the human security and state stability. This paper is an attempt to investigate the delicate issue of Pakistan’s increasing human insecurity in the theoretical context of non-traditional security paradigm. To establish the main hypothesis, both primary and secondary sources are consulted. Major research outcomes mostly comply with the core hypothesis which is an urgent call to deal with the ever-enhancing human security concern in Pakistan.</p> Safia Mansoor; Dr Asia Mukhtar Copyright (c) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/80 Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500 POST OPERATIONS SWIFT RETORT: CHALLENGES AND WAY FORWARD FOR A SMALL AIR FORCE https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/107 <p>The aerial incidents after ‘Pulwama’ episode opens an inimitable chapter in the history<br>of air power as it cemented the pivotal status of air force in the overall security milieu.<br>A mission executed by a small air force under modern air combat environment which<br>achieved all its politico-military objectives. However, the incident is the beginning of an<br>unrelenting story as Indian Air Force (IAF) can never erase this discomfiture and will<br>respond in future to regain its lost glory and diminish Pakistan Air Force (PAF)<br>psychological ascendency. The operation has generated several challenges including<br>psychological and professional for IAF and parity of capabilities for PAF, reminiscence<br>of which will continue for decades to come. In order to remain vigilant and alert, PAF,<br>though a small air force in comparison to IAF, needs to maintain its ‘Resolve to<br>Respond’ by ensuring its effectiveness against all domains of current complex conflicts.<br>A new approach is adapted by borrowing an academic theory of ‘Balance of Resolve’<br>from the strategic brinksmanship, identifying six variables, which covers all aspects of<br>resolve, prudence and inter harmony both at governmental and military levels. The<br>article focuses on the effectiveness of a small air force on the future consequences of<br>the operation in the domain of ‘Resolve to Respond’ and a future road map for a<br>sustainable resolve to address any similar misadventures.</p> Ahmed Hassan; Dr Zulfqar Khan Copyright (c) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/107 Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500 ENERGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY OF PAKISTAN https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/82 <p>Pakistan faces a myriad of internal and external challenges posing threats to its national security. In the modern era, all economic vistas are highly dependent on energy, hence energy security has become a vital factor that influences a state’s economy, foreign<br>policy and security policy. Pakistan’s active participation in Belt and Road Initiatives has further accentuated the energy needs of Pakistan. Despite having diverse unexplored domestic energy resources, Pakistan relies heavily on foreign energy supplies which put<br>huge burden on its fragile economy. Inadequate policy measures, global and domestic energy politics, short term planning, lack of political will and unsustainable energy mix are major grey areas in the energy security of Pakistan. This article explores the reasons<br>of energy shortfall in Pakistan as well as requirements of energy vis-à-vis their impact on the national security, stability and economic development of the country.</p> Sheikh Ghulam Jilani; Adeel ur Rehman, Dr Rafaqat Islam Copyright (c) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/82 Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500 MILITARY EXPENDITURES AND SOCIAL EXPENDITURES IN PAKISTAN: MYTHS AND REALITIES https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/87 <p align="justify">Welfare versus warfare is an ongoing discourse between conservatives favouring<br>military expenditures and the others advocating for the welfare spending. In Pakistan,<br>this debate is highly politicised as some people portray that defence budget takes the<br>bulk of federal budget and it is draining the social budget of Pakistan. However, such<br>arguments are mostly vague and sweeping due to inexact inferences derived from<br>wrong hypothesis and inaccurate or incomplete data. This paper tackles these myths<br>logically and scientifically using appropriate statistical tools with particular emphasis<br>on the Riff off theory. The study is based on a scrupulous investigation of the realities<br>of military expenditures of selected countries through a Time Series Analysis to<br>ascertain the magnitude of the total military expenditure of Pakistan as compared to<br>other countries. It clarifies the statistical relationship between the social and military<br>budgets with the help of Regression Analysis and Correlation Coefficient. The study<br>reveals many interesting veracities by busting various myths.</p> Dr Tahir Mahmood; Shahab Sarwar Copyright (c) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/87 Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500 FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO DEMAND FOR NEW PROVINCES IN PAKISTAN https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/84 <p align="justify">The paper delineates the primary factors contributing to the demand for new provinces<br>in Pakistan by conducting quantitative research. The data has been collected through a<br>structured questionnaire based on close-ended questions. This study is based on the<br>responses of indigenous people of Pakistan living in three divisions: Hazara division in<br>Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Karachi Division in Sindh and Multan Division in Punjab. The<br>data is collected from male and female above 18 years old living in urban or rural areas<br>in the cities of Haripur, Abbottabad, Mansehra, Karachi, Multan and Vehari where the<br>demand for new provinces is high. Any individual aged 18 years and above, who has<br>right to vote and is the permanent resident of the sampled geographic areas is included<br>in the population of this study. Representative sampling strategy through stratified<br>sampling has been used. The data is collected from 300 respondents. After the data<br>collection, data is analysed in the quantitative software of Statistical Package of Social<br>Sciences (SPSS). Findings of the study show that people desire for new provinces is<br>rooted in the administrative reasons rather than ethnic. It is also calculated that<br>people are more sensitive with establishment of new provinces on ethnic identities<br>because they think that new provinces will lead towards desecration, violence and<br>clashes in Pakistan.</p> Rameez Ahmed; Dr Imran Sabir Copyright (c) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/84 Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500 BOOK REVIEW https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/88 <p align="justify">Pakistan’s decisions and policy formation during President Bill Clinton’s<br>administration and how the US foreign policy has influenced Pakistan has been<br>gleaned by the author. For this she interviewed and interacted with the variety of<br>people. The writer’s analysis is factually rich and is the complete incarnation of the<br>book title. The book provides the reader with the examination of the combined<br>impact of Bill Clinton’s policies on Pakistan’s security objectives and instruments in<br>the 1990s. It explains the dynamics which drove Islamabad’s pursuit of nuclear<br>weapons, its support for the Taliban and approach towards the indigenous uprising<br>in Illegally Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJ&amp;K). She explains how<br>overarching security dilemmas can affect the foreign policy. This book is a perfect<br>read for policymakers who want to study foreign policy and are interested in<br>understanding how various factors affect policymakers' choices.</p> Areeba Mehmood Khan Copyright (c) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/88 Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500 BOOK REVIEW https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/89 <p align="justify">In the predominant regional geopolitical environment, China is one of the key<br>players in Asia. Globally, China is viewed as a leading power, which is likely to<br>determine the future direction of the international system and regional politics. In<br>this context, the deeply rooted Pakistan and China relations are important in the<br>global and regional milieu, capturing the attention of policy analysts, experts, and<br>leaders. This book is a valuable and befitting contribution to the literature available<br>on Pakistan-China relations.</p> Muhammad Zohaib Babar Copyright (c) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/89 Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500 BOOK REVIEW https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/90 <p align="justify">The book is a recapitulation of the West greatest imperial disaster of its time. It is<br>a story of colonial ambitions, conceit and folly which has striking pertinence<br>even today. In the year 1839, more than 20,000 British troops poured into the coarse<br>mountain passes of Afghanistan and brought the exiled Shah Shuja on the throne.<br>However, in two years, the Afghans rebellion forced British to retreat. The book also<br>illuminates some key connections between the past and the present situation. The<br>complexity of generational tribal rivalries, their stronghold on customs and politics<br>had ensnared the British of the nineteenth century and the US and NATO forces of<br>today</p> Syed Taimoor Shah Copyright (c) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://ndujournal.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/90 Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:00:00 +0500